First Olympic Posting of the Season

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LONDON — China should win one more medal than the United States at
the Beijing Olympics — 88 to 87 — and top the overall table for the
first time, according to a survey released Monday by accounting firm
PricewaterhouseCoopers.

“As the host nation in Beijing and [with]
an economy which has grown very strongly since 2004, the medal ‘target’
of 88 for China according to our model is much higher than its actual
medal totals in Athens [63] or Sydney [59],” said John Hawksworth, the
report’s author.

China was third in overall medals at Athens
2004, behind first-place United States (102) and Russia (92). China was
second in gold medals behind the U.S. in 2004 — 32 to 36.

Hawksworth
predicted Russia will drop to third place at Beijing with 79 medals
overall, down 13, followed by Germany (43), Australia (41), Japan (34),
France (30), Italy (29), Britain (28) and South Korea (27).

The
report lists significant factors behind a country’s performance at the
Olympics since 1988, including population, average income level and
being the host nation.

“The bottom line is that size matters, but
it is not everything,” Hawksworth said. “David can sometimes slay
Goliath in the Olympic arena.”

India remains a “significant
underperformer” and is predicted to get six medals in Beijing, compared
with one silver medal at Athens.

“The most plausible explanation
is that, with the exception of [field] hockey, Indian sport tends to be
focused on events that are not included in the Olympics, most
importantly cricket,” Hawksworth said.

Last year, Italian Olympic
official Luciano Barra forecast the United States would beat China in
both gold medals and overall medals won.

Copyright 2008 by The Associated Press

udothedishes…