NFC East Division Preview and Predictions

A post by "Blake the Megalomaniac" To see more posts click here

Once again the NFC East shapes up to be the class of the NFL.  The NFC east as a division had the best conference record in the NFL and was one of only two divisions where every team finished 2008 at .500 or better.  The storylines include new defensive coordinators, as 3 of the 4 teams technically have a new coach in that position; inexperienced receivers stepping up; and the loss of big names and tenured veterans.

These are my predictions.  They may seem downright unfathomable but at the risk of being improbable for the sake of being improbable, I truly believe after the research I did in these picks.  It doesn’t take a lot of thought to pick the Giants, Eagles, Cowboys and Redskins in that order.  The NFL rarely works out the same each year.

End group think now. . .

Dallas Cowboys (2008: 9-7, 3-3 in division, missed playoffs):

Every year media pundits and NFL analysts seem to infatuate themselves with the Cowboys. Last year on ESPN’s 2008 NFL preview 14 of the 16 experts picked the Cowboys to win the NFC EAST.  In response, I wrote this in an article:

. . . Might I add that Jeffri Chadiha picked the Ravens and the Bears to meet in last year’s (2007) Superbowl and had the Eagles winning the NFC East.  I’m not hating but I’m simply stating that predictions are worth d*ck and the title €œexpert€ is bestowed upon every single jerk that works at ESPN and the term €œexpert analysis€ is used loosely to describe the verbal diarrhea that spews from the likes of Woody Paige or Emmitt Smith.

Last year, the Cowboys finished at a mediocre 9 and 7 missing the playoffs.  The last we saw of Texas’ team, their pride was being taken by force along with hopes of getting to the playoffs and getting a playoff win (something that has eluded them since 1996) via a dogged but annually underestimated Philadelphia Eagles team.

This year Terrel Owens is gone.  Zach Thomas, Greg Ellis, Anthony Henry, and Roy Williams (S) are all gone too.  Defensive coordinator Brian Stewart, was fired because someone in the coaching staff had to go and it wasn’t going to be Jason Garrett but, in spite of all the losses it feels like the Cowboys are finally focused and ready to live up to all the hype; addition by subtraction, if you will.

Offense: The offensive line is still one of the biggest and best in the league.

Their wide receivers are fairly green but under the leadership of Roy S. Williams, all should prove serviceable although no one other than Williams scares any DBs.  The three runningbacks all have a unique skillset.  “Tash, Dash, and Smash” should be the centerpiece of the offense if they want to go to the playoffs.  By all accounts, I look for the Cowboys to employ a smash mouth type of style where they won’t rely so much on Romo to lead but simply captain the ship.  His numbers might go down but their wins will go up.

Defense: The addition of Igor Olshansky and Keith Brooking, both of whom played under Phillips previously should help the head coach and now defensive coordinator.  Stopping the run shouldn’t be a problem, but the pass might be where they’re most susceptible.  The Cowboys were 5th last year in pass defense but that’s easily attributed to leading the league in sacks with 59.  If they can’t get to the passer as much look for teams to exploit, what looks from my vantage point, to be an untalented (with the exception of injury prone Terrence Newman) secondary.  Mike Jenkins will be the key.  If the second year guy wins a starting job and plays like a pro bowler then the Cowboys will be looking down the standings at the rest of the NFC East.  If he doesn’t then the 8th ranked defense will falter.

Prediction: You aren’t going to get as many NFL analysts picking them to finish 1st in the NFC east this year, exercising caution as not to get burned twice in two years but you will get that prediction from me. 4-2 in conference and a 1st place NFC east finish

Washington Redskins (2008: 8-8, 3-3 in division, missed playoffs):

If you fail to understand how the Redskins could finish second in the division in 2009 because they were 8-8 last season then you’re failing in your obligation to release all predispositions and biases regarding the NFC east and you’re failing to account for how unpredictable the NFL can be.

It’s put up or shut up time in D.C. for Jim Zorn and Jason Campbell.  If they can figure out how to score 21 points a game then they’ll be in good shape.  The 4th ranked defense got significantly better with the addition of Albert Haynesworth and Brian Orakpo and look to do the things that stopped them from winning more games last year, namely: force turnovers, get sacks, hold up in the 4th quarter, and give the offense good field position.

Offense: By all reports, Devin Thomas is going to take over in the number 2 receiver spot in Washington.  If reports are valid then their offense has already improved significantly because that means that Thomas is performing well enough to be a suitable possession receiver to allow Santana Moss to get deep and allow Randle-El, who came on strong at the end of last season, to act, as was originally his purpose, as a the slot receiver.

On paper the weakest aspect of the team has to be the offensive line.  Jon Jansen was ushered out of town by boy wonder with all the grace and class of a VH1 reality show (and Daniel Snyder wonders why Washingtonians despise him).  That’s no way to treat the longest tenured Redskin.

Before injuries last season, the Redskins rushing game was tops in the league.  They finished 8th with 130 ypg but don’t give Clinton Portis all the credit.  The offensive line opened the holes and combo blocked the complacent runningback to the pro bowl.  The additions of Mike Williams and Derek Dockery should strengthen and give depth to the o-line.

Look for Ladell Betts to get more carries.  I hope.

Defense: 28th in sacks in 2008; 17th in interceptions; and 27th in fumbles doesn’t bode well to a team with playoff hopes.  It’s not just about allowing minimal yards, sometimes you have to create opportunities and take advantage of them whether it be returning an INT for a TD instead of just defensing the pass or sacking the QB instead of just pressuring him into an incompletion.  The best defenses impose their will, they don’t just manage the game.

This season the defense will rely on Albert Haynesworth to take them to the next level.  Not only by putting pressure on the QB up the middle but by taking on multiple blockers as to free up the likes of underachieving Andre Carter, supplemental draft pick-up Jeremy Jarmon, Phillip Daniels, Renaldo Wynn, and on occasion Brian Orakpo.  In addition he will help keep lineman from getting to the next level and blocking the underrated London Fletcher, Rocky McIntosh, and on occasion Brian Orakpo.

The secondary is the best in the division.  LaRon Landry is going to be let off his leash a bit more to run around and make plays in the same mold as Ed Reed.  If Carlos Rogers catches some of the INTs that he dropped last year and DeAngelo Hall plays solid and doesn’t take the risks he is prone to taking then the backfield will prove daunting. The addition of Kevin Barnes will help bring depth.

Prediction: 4-2 in the conference and a 2nd place finish.

Philadelphia Eagles (2008: 9-6-1, 2-4 in division, Lost in the NFC championship to the Arizona Cardinals):

Selling the Eagles short would be a mistake given that every year no one can fathom how they’re going to be as successful as they are but almost every year they find a way to win.  Credit has to be given to Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb who have managed to squeeze every ounce of productivity out of average receivers for years.  Credit also has to be given to Jim Johnson for consistently producing a top ten defense.

Jim Johnson’s passing is going to leave a void in Philadelphia no matter how you slice it.  Sean McDermott, is penned as the third, new defensive coordinator in the NFC east but to say that his defense isn’t going to take a step back with the loss of Brian Dawkins would be an insult, in my mind, to Jim Johnson.  I don’t know if that’s my excuse for rationalizing what I feel will be the Eagles’ marginal ‘09 finish but as the late Walter Cronkite was famous for saying, “that’s the way it is.”

Offense: The offense is going to be where the Eagles, if they’re going to prove me wrong and finish atop the NFC east, can make up ground.  The additions of Jeremy Maclin will help the receiving corps assuming he performs as a 2nd or 3rd pass catching options and on special teams, if need be.  The major addition, in my book, is LeSean McCoy who can spell Brian Westbrooke and provide some relief to the injury prone back that many believe is the best in the NFL.  With McCoy and a healthy running attack, the Eagles could mask, not only any problems on defense, but the loss of both offensive tackles.  Tra Thomas signed with the Jaguars and Jon Runyan was cut setting the stage for Shawn Andrews to move from right guard to right tackle and Jason Peters to come in and start at left tackle.

The Eagles were 9th overall on offense and 6th in scoring last season.

Defense: If I were a defensive coordinator, I would have been like Jim Johnson.  An aggressive, dogged, blitz-happy style that proclaimed before the game that we’re blitzing, dared you to stop us only to see you still unprepared and unable to rise to the occasion.  5 NFC championship games in 9 years speaks for itself.  The question now is whether Sean McDermott can continue the tradition with less talent.  Holes at both safety positions and a solid but relatively ambiguous front 7 looks like it could spell trouble for the Eagles.

Prediction:  2-4 in the division for the second year in a row without the good fortune of making the playoffs and the chatter for McNabb’s head once again rekindles.   Third in the division.

New York Giants (2008: 12-4, 4-2 in division, Lost in Divisional Playoffs to the Eagles):

Just like the Cowboys, the Giants lost an elite receiver but unlike the Cowboys their loss can’t be construed as a good thing.  Plaxico Burress proved to be more trouble than he was worth and at the end of the day the Giants optioned to go with their young talent rather than cater to Burress and his legal issues.  On defense, the Giants’ front 7 is as talented as any in the league and new defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan wants to maintain the principles established by Steve Spagnulo while adding his own tilt.

Gone are Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer, and Derrick Ward.  The Giants welcome in Chris Canty from the Cowboys, Michael Boley from the Falcons, Osi Umenyiora off IR and draft picks Hakeem Nicks and Clint Sintim.  They have the talent on defense, the question is whether their offense will be able to keep up.

Defense: Umenyiora, Tuck, Canty, Cofield, Robbins, Kiwanuka, Pierce, Boley, and Sintim equate to sacks and run defense.  Although they didn’t manage any in their playoff loss to the Eagles, they did enough to win without Umenyiora who is back this season.  It all falls to the offense.

Offense: On the strength of Derrick Ward and Brandon Jacobs the Giants offense led the league in rushing in 2008.  Ward rushed for 1025 yards and Jacobs bested him with 1089 yards.  Consequently, the Giants ranked 7th in total offense, 3rd in points per game and 1st in rushing.  Derrick Ward, however, was lost to free agency and now Ahmad Bradshaw has to man up and help carry the offensive load.  The offensive line remains unchanged but if Bradshaw cannot come through than Eli and his crop of unproven receivers will need to.

Steve Smith, David Tyree, Sinorice Moss, Mario Manningham, Domenik Hixon, and the rookie Hakeem Nix have a tremendous opportunity to make names for themselves.  The talent is there with these guys  but talent alone doesn’t equal productivity.  The Giants will be the surprise choice to take a step back in 2009.

Prediction: The Eagles went 2-4 in division last season and still went to the playoffs.  I’m not making playoff predictions but I look to the Giants to go 2-4 in the NFC East like the Eagles but finish 4th in the NFC east and miss the playoffs.  I’m as unbiased as they come but I have to point out that after losing their week 1 game to the Redskins you too, will see the NFC east picture I just painted.

Conclusion:

In this division every team has a chance to win.  Top to bottom this is the most talented division in the NFL.  If the Giants can establish a passing game then they can win the NFC East.  If the Cowboys and Jason Garrett rely less on Romo and more on their backs then they can win the NFC East.  If the Eagles defense maintains their credibility they can win the NFC East.  For the Redskins, if Jason Campbell responds well to critics and their defense dominates like their AFC counterparts up north in Baltimore then they can win the NFC east.  It’s going to be a truly remarkable season and I’m going to be watching all the games from the comfort of a local watering hole or my condominium.  You have comments, thoughts, or predictions I’d be interested to hear them.  Just keep it civil and . . .

udothedishes.