UFC 100: Uneducated Picks

A post by "Blake the Megalomaniac" To see more posts click here

BEZ and I are avid proponents of MMA and UFC and this Saturday, July 11th, the UFC will broadcast UFC: 100, which is a huge milestone in their 16-year tenure as one of the top promotions in mixed martial arts.  Before the biggest pay-per-view event in MMA history, we’re going to give you our uneducated opinions on the bouts on the main card. First we brushed over the Jon Fitch v. Paulo Thiago fight then we made an attempt at analyzing the Hendo v. Bisping tussle and now we get into the meat and potatoes: GSP v Thiago Alves. Tomorrow we’ll have the fight between the two big boys penned.

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Blake the Mega’s Take:

I’m not feeling up to discussing the various merits that each fighter’s skill set possesses and though that’s never stopped me from doing it in the past it’s going to inhibit me this time b/c I’d like to discuss briefly the mental game.

Whether in horseshoes, beerpong, high stakes poker, or walking up to a random girl at TomToms it takes balls.  Balls not to simply partake in the action but balls to get the job done and do it to the best of your ability.  It comes down to who has the mental wherewithal to compete at a high level and adjust his game when the situation calls for it.  Looking back . . .

If you follow the Bloody Elbow “fight lines” way of thinking (albeit a dumbed down version) it would go like this, in 2006 Jon Fitch imposed his will on Thiago Alves with a 2nd round TKO due to strikes that began when Alves finally got free of Fitch’s ground and pound but got caught with two strong up kicks.  The fight was fought mostly on the ground and besides three or four haphazard submission attempts the fight was dominated by Fitch.  In 2008, GSP toyed with Jon Fitch for 5 rounds making an example of his face for others to fear.

Thus, GSP > Fitch> Alves.  But if you go back and watch the Fitch v. Alves fight you realize that Alves wasn’t nearly as big back then and didn’t look nearly as explosive.  Don’t misinterpret that caveat though b/c mentally I think Alves is missing something that he’ll have to prove he’s found on July 11th.

This is a guy who tested positive for a banned diuretic in 2006 and failed to make weight before his win over Matt Hughes.  He seems like he is on the verge of mental midget status, nonetheless he could make me eat crow with a made weight and a win tomorrow night.

GSP also has his mental shortcomings.  Remember when he came in unprepared and unmotivated for the Matt Serra fight?  The pressure of this fight with the media telling Georges St. Pierre that Alves is stronger, younger, and equally explosive might be enough to take down the Welterweight champion.  Pick: Alves

BEZ’s Take:

I do think Alves presents a tougher challenge to GSP’s reign than what most people believe.  This will be a very tough fight for GSP.  Physically he presents GSPs toughest challenge since Jon Fitch.  Alves has a very good stand up game. He is well trained in Muay Thai. He uses a full arsenal of punches, kicks and knees which GSP has not seen from an opponent in his MMA career so far. Thiago Alves has been on a tear winning 7 fights since losing to Fitch. Fairly decisive wins over Matt Hughes, Josh Koschek and Karo Parisyan. Alves is also decent on the ground with a decent BJJ game although that aspect hasn’t really been tested against premiere competition. I think this comes down to the athleticism of GSP being able to take down Alves at will and his ability to wear him out for 5 rounds.  GSP’s conditioning and his swarming attack wins again. Similar to how he handled Jon Fitch I think GSP dominates and wins by Decision. Pick: GSP

Unrelated to this fight, you have to see one of the best finishes in UFC history:

udothedishes . . .